Martingale System Sports Betting
Posted By admin On 25/07/22The Fibonacci system is usually used when placing even money bets in the casino. It is commonly used by roulette players on the outside bets, such as red or black, or odd or even. Craps players can use it on the pass or don’t pass wagers. It can also be used playing blackjack or baccarat, or for even money wagers in sports betting.
A betting strategy (also known as betting system) is a structured approach to gambling, in the attempt to produce a profit.To be successful, the system must change the house edge into a player advantage — which is impossible for pure games of probability with fixed odds, akin to a perpetual motion machine. Martingale System – A gambling system where bettors doubles the amount of a wager after losses. This system can be used for sports and other forms of gambling (i.e. This system can be used for sports and other forms of gambling (i.e. A martingale is any of a class of betting strategies that originated from and were popular in 18th-century France.The simplest of these strategies was designed for a game in which the gambler wins the stake if a coin comes up heads and loses if it comes up tails.
This system utilizes the Fibonacci sequence, but ignores the zero at the start. You should therefore either try to memorize the sequence or have it written down somewhere.
Before you can put the system into practice you need to decide how much you are going to stake per unit. This can be any amount you choose, but we’d recommend keeping it small relative to the total amount you have to gamble with. About 2% is a good guideline, and we strongly advise going no higher 5%.
You then have to follow three rules regarding your staking.
Your first wager in each cycle should always be one single betting unit. This is because, ignoring the zero, one is the first number in the Fibonacci sequence. So if you’d decided that you were going to stake $5 per unit, your first wager would be for $5.
Rule 2 – Start with One Unit
Following a losing wager, you should move to the next number in the sequence for calculating the required stake. So, after losing your first wager, you’d move to the second number one in the sequence. That’s how many betting units you stake for your second wager. If you lost that one too, you’d move to the next number in the sequence. That’s a two, so you’d stake two units. Assuming $5 per unit again, the required stake is now $10.
This rule applies after every loss. You always move to the next number in the sequence, so you’re always increasing the stakes following a losing wager.
Following a winning wager, you should move down TWO numbers in the sequence. So if you won after staking 13 units, for example, you’d stake just five units on the next wager. If you won after betting 55 units, on your next wager you would stake 21 units.
This rule applies after every win, with the following two exceptions.
- If you haven’t moved up at least two numbers in the sequence before winning, then you simply start at the beginning again.
- You start at the beginning of the sequence if at any point you are in profit for a cycle.
Introduction
Oscar's Grind is a popular betting system. It is generally played on even money bets with a specified winning goal. Like most betting system, it usually achieves this goal, but at the expense of a large loss when it doesn't. Like every betting system, it can not pass the test of time and will eventually show a net loss.
Unlike most betting systems, like the Martingale, Labouchere or Fibonacci, the player will press his bets after winning, as opposed to losing. It also does not escalate the bet size as fast as these other systems, making it more of a 'grind' to achieve the winning goal. This causes the chances of reaching the winning goal to be less than more aggressive systems, but also allows the player to play longer and at a smaller average bet.
Overall, Oscar's Grind will tend to win in a streaky game and do badly in a choppy game.
Rules
The following is how to play Oscar's Grind on even money bets.
- The player will define his winning goal and bankroll.
- The player shall define his 'unit size' equal to his winning goal.
- The player makes a one-unit bet.
- If the player ties, then he repeats the same bet.
- Otherwise, if the last bet results is a win and the player has achieved his winning goal, then he walks away happy.
- Otherwise, if the player wins but has not achieved his winning goal, then he increases his bet size by one unit.*/**
- Otherwise, the player keeps the bet size the same.**
- The player bets.
- Go back to rule 4, until the player either achieves his winning goal or loses his entire bankroll.
*: If such an increase in bet would cause the player to overshoot his winning goal if he wins, then drop the bet size to whatever would result in achieving exactly the winning goal the next bet.
**: If the player does not have enough money to make the next bet, then drop the bet size to whatever money the player has left.
Simulation Results
To show what to expect from using Oscar's Grind, I wrote a simulation that followed the rules above, based on various bets and games. The simulation used a Mersenne Twister random number generator. For each simulation, the winning goal was ten units. I tested the simulation on the following bankrolls: 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 units.
The first simulation is based on betting the Player bet in baccarat. The simulation size is over 37 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge on the Player bet is 1.235%.
Baccarat Simulation — Player Bet
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 90.17% | 95.65% | 97.69% | 98.77% | 99.46% |
| Average number of bets | 4.736 | 5.697 | 6.230 | 6.646 | 7.067 |
| Average units bet | 6.626 | 10.609 | 14.557 | 19.609 | 28.650 |
| Expected win per session | -0.082 | -0.131 | -0.180 | -0.242 | -0.354 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 1.234% | 1.235% | 1.236% | 1.235% | 1.235% |
Martingale System Sports Betting Calculator
The first simulation is based on betting the pass bet in craps. The simulation size is over 45 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge on the pass bet is 1.41%.
Craps Simulation — Pass Bet
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 90.14% | 95.63% | 97.67% | 98.76% | 99.45% |
| Average number of bets | 4.289 | 5.161 | 5.645 | 6.024 | 6.409 |
| Average units bet | 6.001 | 9.616 | 13.205 | 17.804 | 26.051 |
| Expected win per session | -0.085 | -0.136 | -0.187 | -0.252 | -0.368 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 1.413% | 1.414% | 1.414% | 1.414% | 1.413% |
Martingale System Sports Betting
The next simulation is based on the don't pass bet in craps. The simulation size was over 43 billion sessions. As a reminder, the house edge on the don't pass bet is 1.364%.
Craps Simulation — Don't Pass
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 90.14% | 95.64% | 97.68% | 98.76% | 99.46% |
| Average number of bets | 4.410 | 5.307 | 5.805 | 6.193 | 6.589 |
| Average units bet | 6.171 | 9.887 | 13.574 | 18.296 | 26.768 |
| Expected win per session | -0.084 | -0.135 | -0.185 | -0.250 | -0.365 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 1.364% | 1.364% | 1.364% | 1.364% | 1.364% |
The next simulation is based on any even money bet in single-zero roulette. The simulation size was over 43 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge is 1/37 = 2.703%.
Roulette Simulation — Single Zero
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 89.40% | 95.11% | 97.29% | 98.49% | 99.28% |
| Average number of bets | 4.381 | 5.327 | 5.871 | 6.314 | 6.789 |
| Average units bet | 6.156 | 10.059 | 14.074 | 19.418 | 29.545 |
| Expected win per session | -0.166 | -0.272 | -0.380 | -0.525 | -0.799 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 2.703% | 2.702% | 2.703% | 2.702% | 2.703% |
The next simulation is based on any even money bet in double-zero roulette. The simulation size was over 45 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge is 2/38 = 5.263%.
Roulette Simulation — Double Zero
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 87.81% | 93.93% | 96.39% | 97.81% | 98.81% |
| Average number of bets | 4.567 | 5.670 | 6.350 | 6.944 | 7.646 |
| Average units bet | 6.468 | 10.982 | 15.945 | 23.026 | 37.824 |
| Expected win per session | -0.340 | -0.578 | -0.839 | -1.212 | -1.991 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 5.263% | 5.264% | 5.262% | 5.264% | 5.264% |
Video
Here is my video on Oscar's Grind.
Internal Links
- The Truth about Betting Systems.
- Labouchere betting system.
- Fibonacci betting system.
- D'Alembert betting system.
- Martingale betting system.
- Keefer roulette system.
Martingale System Sports Betting System
External Links
Discussion about Oscar's Grind in my forum at Wizard of Vegas.
